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Good Coaches Don’t Grow on Trees…Or do They?

May 10

Posted by sprather in Did You Know? | No Comments

Article submitted by Adam Rosen. Follow him on Twitter @DSportsGuide or visit his website at http://dsportsguide.blogspot.com/

To land a college football head coaching gig, coaches must work their way up as assistants, while gaining experience and building their resume. Throughout their journey, they will work for people with many different head coaching ideals and philosophies. Similar to a child’s transition into adolescence, these various things will shape and mold their own coaching style until they are able to become a head coach.

Regardless of age, there is a substantial amount for head coaches or higher ranking assistants to influence an up and coming assistant prior to landing their first head coaching job.

When Lane Kiffin was hired by Tennessee at age 31, he was the youngest head coach ever hired at a college football program and already had 12 years of experience under his belt.  Twelve years is a long time. Think about how much different you were when you were six compared to 18. Even from 18 to 30.

And Lane Kiffin was the youngest hire of all time.

Most coaches probably have around 20 years of coaching experience as an assistant before they are finally hired to run a football program. Heck, Norm Chow is 65 and entering his first year as Hawaii’s new head coach, which equates to 38 years of grooming and experience as an assistant.

So, where do all these assistants who are landing first time head coaching jobs come from?

Majority of them are (offensive or defensive) coordinators from established programs coming off a successful season– a trend that is continuing upwards in recent years.

The season prior to landing their first head coaching job, the teams they were being taken from averaged 9.7 wins from 2010-2011. From 2005-2009, the average win total was only 8.2 wins.

If a coach wins consistently over a period of time, then they tend to get their fair share of assistants hired by other universities to be their head coach. The idea is that the former assistant can replicate and build upon the things they learned under their former head coach.

The truly successful coaches almost seem as if they become coaching factories, churning out assistant coaches who are deemed ready-made to take another university’s program to the same level – just add batteries.

This is how a coaching tree begins to form.

And although the method of hiring assistants from the head coach with a well decorated trophy case is extremely popular among athletic directors, it isn’t always as seamless as it sounds.  One of the most familiar examples of assistants failing to imitate a successful head coach is the Bill Belichick coaching tree.

And similar to the same way your parents didn’t want you hanging out with the wrong crowd, athletic directors (should) look to avoid hiring assistants from a coaching tree that might only produce poisoned fruit.

Using some of our data from CoachesByTheNumbers.com, we compared some of the most prominent recent coaching trees to see which coaches produced the most successful assistants into head coaches.

The Coaching Trees:

Bob Stoops: Mark Mangino, Chuck Long, Mike Stoops, Kevin Sumlin, Kevin Wilson

Urban Meyer: Charlie Strong, Dan Mullen, Steve Addazio, Kyle Whittingham

Nick Saban: Jimbo Fisher, Derek Dooley, Will Muschamp, Bobby Williams

Les Miles: Bo Pelini, Mike Gundy, Larry Porter

Pete Carroll: Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, Nick Holt, Ed Orgeron

Mike Leach: Art Briles, Dana Holgorsen, Ruffin McNeil, Sonny Dykes, Greg McMackin

Mike Bellotti: Jeff Tedford, Chip Kelly, Dirk Koetter, Chris Petersen

Bobby Bowden: Mark Richt, Chuck Amato, Tommy Bowden

 

What we used to measure the success of the coaching tree:

CBTN Rating Score: We took the average score of each assistant’s “CBTN Rating Score” as a head coach.

Overall Win %: Because winning is the only metric that trumps everything in sports, we took the average overall win % of each assistant as a head coach.

Win % against Top 25: Beating mediocre teams doesn’t measure success like beating the good ones can so we took the average win % vs. Top 25 teams of each assistant as a head coach.

Conference Win %: Racking up wins against Northeast Western State types in non-conference is a good excuse for people to drink in a parking lot. Winning in conference is what counts so we took the average conference win % for each assistant as a head coach.

CBTN % Difference Score: This looks at the difference in a coach’s winning percentage at a school compared to the winning percentage at that school in the 5 previous years. Some coaches have to clean up a giant mess at certain jobs, while others walk into a Taj Mahal with perfectly waxed floors. This is the key to determining if a coach was able to turn a program around. Six win seasons don’t always scream success like they should at some schools and vice versa so we took the average differential of each assistant as a head coach.

Then to round everything out, we tallied bowls, Top 25 finishes, Conference Championships, and BCS Bowls.

Coaching
Tree		 Yrs. Rating (Avg) Win % Overall Win % Top 25 Conf. Win % % Diff
Mike Bellotti 25 68.8 71% 41% 66% 11.7%
Bobby Bowden 25 61.7 65% 47% 58% 8.0%
Urban Meyer 13 51.4 66% 31% 59% 13.8%
Mike Leach 18 40.7 53% 29% 56% 3.0%
Les Miles 13 37.9 60% 40% 52% 9.9%
Bob Stoops 24 31.3 47% 27% 42% 5.9%
Nick Saban 10 44.0 52% 11% 43% -8.5%
Pete Carroll 11 31.9 44% 19% 40% -6.7%

 

Coaching Tree Yrs. Conference Champ. Top 25 Finishes Bowls
Mike Bellotti 25 8 11 23
Bobby Bowden 25 2 13 25
Urban Meyer 13 2 3 12
Mike Leach 18 4 2 11
Les Miles 13 1 6 10
Bob Stoops 24 0 2 10
Nick Saban 10 0 2 6
Pete Carroll 11 0 1 3

So based on the above data, here is how their coaching trees rank from best to worst:

Coaching
Tree		 Total Avg.
Rating		 Win %
Overall		 Win %
Top 25		 Win %
Conf		 % Diff *Conf
Champ		 *Top 25
Finish		 *Bowls *BCS
Bowls
Mile Bellotti 13 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1
Bobby Bowden 21 2 3 1 3 4 4 1 1 2
Urban Meyer 25 3 2 4 2 1 3 4 3 3
Les Miles 38 6 4 3 5 3 5 3 5 4
Mike Leach 42 5 5 5 4 6 2 6 4 5
Nick Saban 57 4 6 8 6 8 6 5 7 6
Bob Stoops 60 8 7 6 7 5 8 7 6 7
Pete Carroll 68 7 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 8
*Tie Breakers- Conf Champs/Years; Top 25/Years; Bowls/Years; BCS Bowls/Years

With the recent success of guys like Chip Kelly and Chris Petersen, it’s not a complete surprise Mike Bellotti’s coaching tree rated the best by a landslide. Even Jeff Tedford, who has the third highest CBTN % difference score in the whole coaching database, can be considered underrated.

The key to the success of Bellotti’s coaching tree is that none of his protégés bombed at any of their coaching jobs. Petersen, Kelly, and Tedford all have significantly improved their programs and Dirk Koetter set things in motion at Boise State.  While Koetter was unable to return Arizona State to the glory days of Jake the Snake, he did not completely tank or leave the program in shambles.

Where a lot of Athletic Directors get in trouble is when they look around for a quick fix emulation of a powerhouse program so they snag a replica coach and gamble millions that he can jump start their program into the national scene. The truth is that it takes decades to build programs into national powers and sometimes consistency is the key to building a program.

The interesting part of this study is the three guys at the top (Bellotti, Bowden, and Meyer) found success by building up programs without an abundance of wealth, resources, or history to national relevance at some point in their career.

The guys at the bottom of the coaching tree rankings (Stoops and Carroll), both excellent coaches, have never had to succeed at nontraditional powerhouses. They weren’t necessarily the guys at the factory building the shiny new sports cars like the others. They were just the mechanics who were able to restore it to mint condition after it had been sitting in a garage with boxes piled on top of it for 20 years.

And what damn fine mechanics they were too.

Perhaps learning under a coach that has been able to succeed (on a national scale) with limited resources is the main difference between a successful assistant hire and an unsuccessful one.

Last season, 120 college football coaches were paid $176,223,757 which averages out to $218,640 per win. That doesn’t include the salaries of assistants, trainers, and other administrative people within the athletic department.

It’s expensive to win in college football. Therefore, it should be important for athletic directors to trace the lineage of potential head coaching hires to their roots of the tree they came from.

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Petrino Out. Where should Arkansas Turn?

Apr 11

Posted by sprather in Firing Analysis | No Comments

Now that Bobby Petrino has made another controversial exit from yet another job, Arkansas Athletic Director Jeff Long has a tough task in front of him.

With spring practice in full swing in Fayetteville and with less than five months until the season kicks off, this situation has put the Hogs in an extremely difficult spot. At CBTN, we are of the opinion that Arkansas shoudl name an interim coach from the existing staff for the 2012 season and focus their full efforts on getting a new head coach for the 2013 season. We are of the mindset that it’s going to be very difficult to get a coach (head or assistant) to leave his current program with less than five months until the college football season begins.

At the end of the day, replacing Bobby Petrino’s “character” and “integrity” will be extremely easy but replacing his ability to win games and score points will be very difficult. To get an idea of just how difficult Petrino will be to replace, consider the following (numbers for Houston Nutt below are from 2001-2007):

  • From 01-11, Arkansas averaged 30 points or more per game in a season five times. Petrino was responsible for three of these five years.
  • The average football revenues under Petrino from 2008-2010 were just shy of $28 million. For comparison, average football revenues under Nutt were $17 million.
  • From 10-11, Petrino won 81% of his games. This was the best two year span for the Hogs since Coach Hatfield went 20-4 (83%) from 88-89 playing in Southwestern Conference.
  • At Arkansas, Petrino was 17-16 against teams finishing the season over .500. For comparison, Nutt was 19-35 against over .500 teams.
  • Petrino was 10-12 against Top 25 teams(Time of Game Ranking). Houston Nutt was 9-22.
  • From 09-11, Petrino scored 51% more points against opponents compared to the average points allowed per game by that opponent.
  • From 09-11, Petrino was 7-4 in games decided by seven pts or less. Nutt was 14-16 in games decided by seven points or less.
  • During his tenure at Arkansas, the average percent capacity for home game attendance was 94%. Under Coach Nutt, the average percent capacity was 91%. This 3% difference may seem inconsequential, but consider this:  At an average fan cost of $50 (ticket and concessions), Petrino was bringing in nearly $600,000 more dollars per year in game-day revenue.
  • Petrino was 18-2 at home from 09-11.
  • Petrino scored 30+ pts in 59% of his games at Arkansas. Under Nutt, Arkansas scored 30+ points 42% of the time.

As we mentioned before, it will not be difficult to find a coach with more “integrity” than Bobby Petrino. However, it will be extremely difficult to find a coach who can replicate his on-field results.

Here is a list of candidates that we feel should at least receive a phone call from Jeff Long (or the search firm that he is overpaying) in the coming months:

Gary Patterson

We did an entire write up on Coach Patterson last season, which can you can read here. In 2011, Gary Patterson secured his 8th 10+ win season in the last 11 years. By The Numbers, Gary Patterson is one of the best coaches in all of college football, and we have very, very, very little doubt (there’s always some doubt) about success following Patterson anywhere he goes

Gus Malzahn

Once again, Gus Malzahn makes a CBTN coaching list. Even though he is entering his first year as the Arkansas State head coach, we still feel he is worth calling. He  has put up Nintendo numbers as an OC at Arkansas, Tulsa, and Auburn. We have not seen (outside of high school) the results Coach Malzahn can produce as a head coach, but we believe his positives far outweigh his negatives..Fun stat on Malzahn: As an OC, his offenses have scored 30+ points 58.02% of the time, 40+ points 39.51% of the time, and 50+ points 22.22% of the time.

Kirby Smart

When it comes to numbers, there’s not much to dislike about Kirby Smart. Since being named the defensive coordinator in 2008, Alabama has won 88.89% of the time and his defenses have forced a turnover or three and out on 55.03% of defensive possessions. Kirby Smart played in the SEC (UGA) and has spent a large portion of his coaching career in the SEC. Our only hesitation with Kirby Smart comes from what we call the “Belichick Effect”. For a while there, if you wanted to become an NFL head coach all you needed to do was work for Bill Belichick. First it was Romeo Crennel, then it was Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini, and finally Josh McDaniels. The last time we checked, not one of these coaches was still a head coach as of the writing of this article. Nick Saban is one of the best minds in college football (especially on the defensive side of the ball), and you have to be careful not to assume that because someone works for a great head coach they will be a great head coach. That being said, Kirby Smart is a risk we believe Arkansas should be willing to accept.

Manny Diaz

The simple fact of the matter is that when Manny Diaz shows up on campus, defenses get statistically better. In his first year as the DC at Texas, the Longhorns gave up less than 300 yards per game and had the second rated scoring defense in the Big 12. This was only the fourth time in 11 years that Mack Brown’s defense gave up fewer than 300 yards per game and only the fifth time his defense was ranked either 1 or 2 in the Big 12 for scoring defense. Diaz has spent most of his coaching career in the southeast at MTSU and Mississippi State, and appears to have head coach written all over him. His defenses play an extremely aggressive brand of football, and we believe he would bring both excitement and an extreme level of competence Arkansas.

June Jones

The biggest problem we have with June Jones is that we can’t picture him without a Lei, a stache, and a Hawaiian shirt. Once we get past this, we like what we see. In the five years prior to Jones taking over at Hawaii, the Fighting Rainbows had won 20.34% of their games. From 1999-2007, Jones won 64.96% of his games and won nine or more games in six of the nine seasons he was head coach. In the five years before Jones took over at SMU, the Mustangs won 25.86% of their games. Since Coach Jones took over in 2008, the Mustangs have won 45.10% of their games (this includes Jones’ first year when SMU went 1-11). Jones is also responsible for leading the Mustangs to their first back-to-back-to-back .500 or better seasons since the mid 1980′s. His name doesn’t get mentioned that much, but June Jones is one heck of a coach.

Troy Calhoun

If you want to talk about tough jobs, look no further than the Air Force Academy. Of the 58 games Calhoun has coached at Air Force, he has had inferior talent 55.17% of the time. During his five years at the helm of the Falcons, Calhoun has won 64.06% of his games, been to five straight bowl games, and won eight or more games in four of the five years. If Arkansas fans are starting to get hives thinking about running that “high school offense” Air Force runs, take a look at Calhoun’s resume. He was Jim Grobe’s offensive coordinator at Wake Forest from 2001-2002, helping the Demon Deacons to back-to-back winning seasons and two of Jim Grobe’s best years for scoring offense in his eleven years as head coach at Wake Forest. From 2003-2006, Calhoun coached in the NFL as an assistant coach, including one year as the Houston Texans offensive coordinator in 2006. This is all to say that Troy Calhoun has a lot of weapons in his arsenal. If running an option based offense is what will give Arkansas an edge, he will run an option based offense. If running a more pro-style attack will give him the advantage he needs, he will run a more pro-style offense. Calhoun is also 6-3 against his rivals as a head coach.

Art Briles

On the surface, Art Briles’ numbers are not very impressive. He is a  3 star coach in our system and has barely won more games than he has lost in his nine years as a FBS head coach. However, if you dig a little deeper, you will discover that Art Briles is quite the coach. In the five years before he took over at Houston, the Cougars had won 32.14% of their games only had two seasons in which they won more than three games. During his five year stint at Houston, Briles won 53.97% of his games overall, including winning seven or more games three times, and winning 10 games in a season for the first time since 1990 (circa David Klingler era). In the five years before Briles was hired at Baylor, the Bears had only won 31.03% of their games and lost eight or more games in four of five years. After four years at Baylor, Briles has won 50.00% of his games, and in 2011, has led the Bears to their first tent win season since 1980.

Chad Morris

Two years ago, Chad Morris was coaching high school football in Texas. Today, he is showcasing his offensive mind as Clemson’s offensive coordinator. In his first year leading the Clemson offense, Morris increased the Tigers’ scoring offense by 15% compare to the average for the previous five seasons and their total offense by 20%. Among active offensive coordinators who have been OC’s from 2010-Present, Morris is currently ranked 14th (out of 103 offensive coordinators). As former Tulane head coach Tommy Bowden recently stated, ”You’ve got to strike when the iron’s hot in this profession.” The iron is currently hot for Morris, and we believe he would be well served to take the call if Arkansas comes calling.

Mark Hudspeth

Mark Hudspeth just wrapped up his first year as head coach of the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns. In 2011, Hudspeth finished the year with a 9-4 mark. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not won more than six games since 1993, so it’s safe to say that Coach Hudspeth is having an immediate impact.  Hudspeth spent the 2009-2010 seasons working as the passing game coordinator under Mississippi St. head coach Dan Mullen. Prior to his stop in Starkville, Hudspeth was the head coach at Division II North Alabama from 2002-2008, where he won 75.86% of his games. It’s always risky to hire coaches after one year, but Hudspeth has a nice resume and a history of winning. He knows the Southeast and is definitely worth a call.

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2011 Coach Changes

Apr 10

Posted by aborland in Firing Analysis, Hiring Analysis, Hotseat, Rumors | No Comments

Below is the current list of FBS Teams that are changing head coaches this offseason. We will constantly be updating this list as information is confirmed, so stay tuned. Keep up to date with the latest information by visiting our Coaches Rumor Mill.

School 2011 Coach 2012 Coach Analysis Grade
Akron Zips Rob Ianello Terry Bowden Hiring Analysis B+
Arkansas Razorbacks Bobby Petrino John L Smith Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Arizona Wildcats Mike Stoops Rich Rodriquez Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 A-
Arizona St. Sun Devils Dennis Erickson Todd Graham CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 B-
Arkansas St. Red Wolves Hugh Freeze Gus Malzahn Hiring Analysis A+
Colorado St. Rams Steve Fairchild Jim McElwain CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 A
Fla. Atlantic Owls Schnellenberger Carl Pelini Hiring Analysis A-
Fresno St. Bulldogs Pat Hill Tim DeRuyter CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 B
Hawaii Warriors Greg McMackin Norm Chow CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 B
Houston Cougars Kevin Sumlin Tony Levine CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 D
Illinois Fighting Illini Ron Zook Tim Beckman Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 B-
Kansas Jayhawks Turner Gill Charlie Weis CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 C
Memphis Tigers Larry Porter Justin Fuente CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 A-
New Mexico Lobos Mike Locksley Bob Davie Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 C
North Carolina Tar Heels Everett Withers (I) Larry Fedora Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 C+
Ohio St. Buckeyes Luke Fickell (I) Urban Meyer CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 A+
Ole Miss Rebels Houston Nutt Hugh Freeze CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 B
Penn St. Nittany Lions Joe Paterno Bill O’Brien Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 D-
Pittsburgh Panthers Todd Graham Paul Chryst CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 A
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Greg Schiano Kyle Flood CBTN Candidates
Southern Miss. Eagles Larry Fedora Ellis Johnson CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 B
Texas A&M Aggies Mike Sherman Kevin Sumlin Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 C+
Toledo Rockets Tim Beckman Matt Campbell Hiring Analysis B
Tulane Green Wave Bob Toledo Curtis Johnson CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 F
UAB Blazers Neil Callaway Garrick McGee CBTN Candidates
Hire Analysis		 B-
UCLA Bruins Rick Neuheisel Jim Mora CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 D
Washington St. Cougars Paul Wulff Mike Leach Firing Analysis
CBTN Candidates
Hiring Analysis		 A+

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The Article Every High School Football Recruit (and college AD) Should Read

Mar 19

Posted by sprather in Did You Know? | No Comments

When you title a piece with a tantalizing headline like the one above, you had better deliver some compelling information. Well, after crunching some numbers and doing some extensive research during this off-season, we think we might have done just that.

While logging the 2012 head coaching changes into our database, an idea occurred to us. While we have done extensive statistical analysis related to on-the-field performance metrics as they relate to head coaches and coordinators, we haven’t performed any statistical analysis associated with the coaching changes themselves.

So our resident technology expert crunched some numbers and ran some queries, and we were astounded with the results. So what did our Coaching Changes By The Numbers reveal? Let’s find out:

Since our data runs from 2001-Present, we looked at all the FBS coaching changes in that time period. Here’s how it looks:

2001-2012 Number
Total Head Coaching Changes 241
Avg. Head Coaching Changes per Year 20

So right out of the gate, it looks like 17% of all FBS schools make a head coaching change in any given year. Let’s look at a year-by-year comparison of Head Coaching changes to see what it looks like:

Year # of Head Coaching Changes
2001 25
2002 13
2003 18
2004 14
2005 23
2006 11
2007 24
2008 18
2009 22
2010 23
2011 24
2012 26

As you can see, as college football’s popularity (and number of message boards) has increased,  the tolerance level towards head coaches has decreased. The number of new head coaching hires has increased every year over the last five years (2008-2012).

We decided we wanted to dig a little deeper and take a look at how many DIFFERENT teams were hiring new head coaches in certain time periods. Maybe we would find out that the same schools seemed to be hiring/firing coaches? That’s not what we found out.

Consider this:

YEARS % of different FBS Schools Making New HC Hires
2001-2004 55%
2005-2008 61%
2009-2012 68%

Over the last 12 years, schools have increasingly given the “quick hook” to head coaches they feel aren’t getting the job done for one reason or another. Nearly 68% of all FBS schools have had to hire a new head Coach in the last four years!!!

When looking at these mind-boggling numbers, we started wondering about offensive and defensive coordinators. If that many new head coaching jobs were turning over, how many coordinator positions were turning over? Here’s what we found.

(Note: For Coordinators, if a co-coordinator was added/dropped  to or from the staff we marked that as a “change”)

Here’s what it looks like for Offensive Coordinator Changes from 2002-2012:

2002-2012 Number
Total # of OC Changes 436
Avg. # of OC Changes per Year 40
Year # of OC Changes
2002 27
2003 36
2004 30
2005 33
2006 32
2007 50
2008 39
2009 50
2010 45
2011 45
2012 49

Just like we did for head coaches, let’s look at the number of DIFFERENT schools hiring or adding new OC’s in the last 4 years (2009-2012):

New OC’s from 2009-2012 103
% of all FBS Schools 86%

Now let’s take a look at the numbers for defensive coordinators:

2002-2012 Number
Total # of DC Changes 444
Avg. # of DC Changes per Year 40
Year # of DC Changes
2002 34
2003 39
2004 36
2005 41
2006 25
2007 43
2008 48
2009 42
2010 44
2011 43
2012 49

Finally, let’s look at the number of DIFFERENT schools hiring or adding new DC’s in the last 4 years (2009-2012):

New DC’s from 2009-2012 106
% of all FBS Schools 88%

So think about this. If you signed a scholarship to play college football at an FBS program in 2009, there is a 68% chance that you are playing for a new head coach, an 86% chance that you are playing for a new offensive coordinator, and an 88% chance that you are playing for a new defensive coordinator.

Here is one final eye-opening statistic for all the wide-eyed high school recruits getting wooed by their favorite coach or coordinator. In the last 4 years (2009-2012), only eight FBS teams (roughly 7%) have had the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator for all four years from 2009-2012.

First moral of the story? DON’T CHOOSE A SCHOOL BASED ON WHO THE COACHES ARE BECAUSE THEY PROBABLY WON’T BE YOUR COACHES FOR TOO LONG.

Second moral of the story? IF YOU ARE AN ATHLETIC DIRECTOR, YOU HAD BETTER BE PREPARED TO HIRE A NEW COACH OVER THE NEXT FOUR YEARS AND IF YOU ARE NOT USING DATA AND STATISTICS TO CONTINUALLY UPDATE YOUR SHORT LIST OF REPLACEMENTS, THEN SHAME ON YOU.

Disclaimer: we know that four new teams have joined the FBS for 2012, but we assume 120 FBS teams for “apples-to-apples” comparisons.

Interesting Stats: SEC Coaches and 3rd Down Efficiency

Feb 25

Posted by sprather in Did You Know?, Rankings | No Comments

Seeing as it is the most talked about conference, we decided to stick with the SEC for our “Interesting Stats”. Previously, we showed you how the current SEC coaches have done vs. “good” and “bad” teams.

Now let’s take a look at how SEC coaches do in terms of 3rd Down Efficiency. This is a very important stat as it shows a team’s ability to maintain drives or ability to get opponents off the field. In the table below, we show how current SEC Head Coaches have fared in terms of Offensive 3rd Down Efficiency and Defensive 3rd Down Efficiency. We then look at the difference between these two numbers to determine who is doing the best job overall in terms of 3rd Downs.

Note: Stats are for coaches career from 2001-Present and sorted in descending order by total 3rd Down Efficiency.

Coach Current Team Yrs Off. 3rd Down Efficiency %
 Def. 3rd Down Efficiency %
 Total 3rd Down Efficiency
Nick Saban Alabama 9 42.00 31.39 10.61
Les Miles LSU 11 41.91 33.12 8.79
Kevin Sumlin Texas A&M 4 50.34 43.33 7.01
Hugh Freeze Mississippi 1 42.08 35.24 6.84
Mark Richt Georgia 11 40.76 34.73 6.03
Bobby Petrino Arkansas 8 41.36 35.89 5.47
Will Muschamp Florida 1 32.08 27.27 4.81
Gary Pinkel Missouri 11 44.61 40.95 3.66
Dan Mullen Mississippi St. 3 39.32 35.81 3.51
Steve Spurrier South Carolina 8 40.70 37.85 2.84
Gene Chizik Auburn 5 41.77 42.51 -0.75
Derek Dooley Tennessee 5 36.29 38.31 -2.02
James Franklin Vanderbilt 1 34.24 36.60 -2.36
Joker Phillips Kentucky 2 36.56 39.52 -2.97

You can find stats like these and much more by searching our 60+ customizable rankings. If you have any questions or comments or a certain stat you would like to see, please email us at team@coachesbythenumbers.com.

Interesting Stats: Big 12 Coaches in “Close Games” and “Blowouts”

Feb 23

Posted by sprather in Did You Know?, Rankings | No Comments

 

In our last two “Interesting Stats” articles, we focused on stats for coaches in the SEC. For our latest installment, we thought we would switch gears and focus on the Big 12. We wanted to take a look at the current Big 12 Head Coaches and see how they have fared in what we define as “close” games and how they have fared in what we define as “blowouts”. Here’s how they look.

Note: Ranks and sorts all active Big 12 head coaches (since 2001) by the following: Close games (decided by 4 points or less), One TD Games (decided by 7 points or less) and Blowouts (decided by more than 14 points). Sorted Alphabetically by team.

Coach Current Close Games Close % One TD Games One TD % Blowouts Blowouts %
Art Briles Baylor 9-10 47.37 16-20 44.44 30-26 53.57
Paul Rhoads Iowa St. 6-2 75.00 9-5 64.29 6-12 33.33
Charlie Weis Kansas 6-8 42.86 12-12 50.00 20-12 62.50
Bill Snyder Kansas St. 10-11 47.62 17-17 50.00 33-10 76.74
Bob Stoops Oklahoma 8-10 44.44 20-15 57.14 83-8 91.21
Mike Gundy Oklahoma St. 8-5 61.54 14-10 58.33 38-14 73.08
Gary Patterson TCU 18-9 66.67 30-15 66.67 63-8 88.73
Mack Brown Texas 23-4 85.19 24-9 72.73 79-9 89.77
Tommy Tuberville Texas Tech 18-8 69.23 32-16 66.67 41-19 68.33
Dana Holgorsen West Virginia 3-1 75.00 4-1 80.00 5-2 71.43

Stats like these and much more can be found for every coach and every conference in our 60+ Customizable Rankings. If there is a stat that you would like to see us add or if you have any questions or comments, feel free to email us at team@coachesbythenumbers. com.

Three New Rankings Added

Feb 19

Posted by aborland in CBTN News, Rankings | No Comments

We’ve added three more rankings that we thought would be pretty awesome in helping break down coaches. All of the rankings are centered around relative points and yards data. Ever wonder how a coach was performing relative to other teams? Scoring 21 points may not seem like a lot, but against Alabama, that’s quite a feat. At CBTN, we realize that relativity definitely has its merits when comparing and contrasting coaches, so these newest rankings are for just that. We’ve broken out relative offensive and defensive points and yards per game for Head Coaches, and the same corresponding breakdowns for Offensive and Defensive Coordinators. Here are the links to our new rankings:

CBTN Head Coach Rankings – Relative Points and Yards Per Game
CBTN Offensive Coordinator Rankings – Relative Points and Yards Per Game
CBTN Defensive Coordinator Rankings – Relative Points and Yards Per Game

For more details, check out the Coach Rankings Catalog.

All of these rankings, like most of our rankings, are completely customizable by year, conference, active and inactive coaches, etc.

These three new rankings are available right now in our Coach Rankings section.

Interesting Stats: SEC Coaches vs. “Good” and “Bad” Teams

Feb 16

Posted by sprather in Did You Know?, Rankings | No Comments

The 2011 season, bowl season, and recruiting season have come to an end. That being said, college football junkies know that there is no off-season in the college football world.

Pretty soon, pundits and fans will be breaking down every aspect of spring practice and spring games where hope springs eternal for most programs. Everyone is undefeated heading into the 2012 season and fans will start analyzing schedules and convincing themselves that their team should be “9-0 heading into the game vs. so-and-so”. Then comes media days where fans and media will scrutinize every word and voice inflection to try and get an idea of what their team will look like come Labor Day.

We figured the offseason would be a good time to showcase some of the interesting stats that our database is capable of producing. While all of the stats displayed here can be found by surfing the site, we figured we would save you some time and package them up for you.

Our first edition of “Interesting Stats” features the current SEC head coaches’ record vs. teams that finished the season over .500 and record vs. teams that finished the season under .500 (including .500 teams). We feel these are important stats as certain coaches can pad their statistics by beating weak teams. For example, a coach may get  four W’s against weak non-conference opponents and then beat two lower-tier conference teams to qualify for a bowl game. But is that doing a good job of “coaching”? We will let you decide. So here is the list of current active SEC HC’s and how they have fared against good and bad teams.

NOTE: Record is for their career as a HC and includes victories over FCS opponents as well. Coaches appear from best to worst in winning percentage vs. teams finishing the season over .500.

Coach Team vs. Over .500 Over .500 WP% vs. Under .500 Under .500 WP%
Nick Saban Alabama 52-23 69.33 43-1 97.73
Mark Richt Georgia 60-35 63.16 46-3 93.88
Les Miles LSU 49-35 58.33 54-4 93.10
Hugh Freeze Mississippi 4-3 57.14 6-0 100.00
Bobby Petrino Arkansas 30-24 55.56 45-2 95.74
Kevin Sumlin Texas A&M 13-13 50.00 23-4 85.19
Gene Chizik Auburn 20-21 48.78 15-8 65.22
Steve Spurrier South Carolina 33-35 48.53 32-2 94.12
Gary Pinkel Missouri 33-42 44.00 52-12 81.25
Joker Phillips Kentucky 4-10 28.57 7-4 63.64
Dan Mullen Mississippi St. 6-17 26.09 15-0 100.00
Derek Dooley Tennessee 5-27 15.63 23-7 76.67
Will Muschamp Florida 1-6 14.29 6-0 100.00
James Franklin Vanderbilt 0-6 0.00 6-1 85.71

You can find stats like these and much more by customizing our 60+ rankings. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to email us at team@coachesbythenumbers.com.

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Four New Rankings Added.

Feb 6

Posted by aborland in CBTN News, Rankings | No Comments

We’ve added four more rankings that we thought would be pretty awesome in helping break down coaches. All of the rankings are centered around possession data. Ever wonder the percentage of possessions a coach was scoring? What about three and outs? Turnovers? Touchdowns? What about giving up points? Well, we have all of these statistics in our new rankings. We’ve broken out the offensive and defensive possessions for Head Coaches, and the same corresponding possession breakdowns for Offensive and Defensive Coordinators. Here are the links to our new rankings:

CBTN Head Coach Rankings – Offensive Possessions
CBTN Head Coach Rankings – Defensive Possessions
CBTN Offensive Coordinator Rankings – Possessions
CBTN Defensive Coordinator Rankings – Possessions

For more details, check out the Coach Rankings Catalog.

All of these rankings, like most of our rankings, are completely customizable by year, conference, active and inactive coaches, etc.

These four new rankings are available right now in our Coach Rankings section.

National Signing Day Truths and Misconceptions

Jan 27

Posted by aborland in Rankings | No Comments

Article from ChuckOliver.net by Bryan Powers.

We are just a week away from the biggest day in college football since, well, three weeks ago. But it is the biggest day until spring games roll around in April.  As National Signing day is right around the corner, fanbases across the country leave their successes and failures from last season and begin to seriously look into their future.  This being the case, I looked into a little recent history of signing day, specifically at the last five classes.  WARNING:  What follows may be very encouraging, or very discouraging, depending on how you look at it and hwo your team is.  It seems that recruiting may me more, or less, of a science than previously believed.

Last night I went through the top 25 recruiting classes of each of the last five years.  I wrote them all out and combined them, giving the top class for a given year 25 points and scaling down all the way to the number 25 team, who reveived one point.  Then I added up the points and came up with the TRR (total recruiting ranking) for the last 5 years.  If this is confusing, just trust me when I say that I have the top 25 recruiting programs of the past five years listed below.

One would think that if their team had a top ten recruiting class over a five year span that their team would have likely ended up in the top ten this season.  Conversely, if a team was not in the cumulative top 25, it would be fair to assume that they probably would not have a very successful season this year.  But that’s what one would get for thinking.

In the columns below, you will see two charts.  The first lists the final AP top 25 for the 2011 season.  To the right of the teams, in the TRR column, is each team’s recruiting rank (see above).  In the chart to the right, you will see the overall top 25 recruiting classes of the past five years.  To their right is their final rank in the 2011 season.  It’s not exactly scientific, but it will work for the purpose of this article.

Final AP Team TRR TRR Team Final AP
1 Alabama 4 1 USC 6
2 LSU 2 2 LSU 2
3 Oklahoma Sate NR 3 Texas NR
4 Oregon 16 4 Alabama 1
5 Arkansas NR 5 Ohio State NR
6 USC 1 6 Auburn NR
7 Stanford NR 7 Georgia 19
8 Boise State NR 8 Florida NR
9 South Carolina 17 9 Florida State 23
10 Wisconsin NR 10 Notre Dame NR
11 Michigan State NR 11 Tennessee NR
12 Michigan 13 12 Oklahoma 16
13 Baylor NR 13 Michigan 12
14 TCU NR 14 UCLA NR
15 Kansas State NR 15 Miami NR
16 Oklahoma 12 16 Oregon 4
17 West Virginia NR 17 South Carolina 9
18 Houston NR 18 Penn State NR
19 Georgia 7 19 North Carolina NR
20 Southern Miss NR 20 Clemson 22
21 Virginia Tech NR 21 Washington NR
22 Clemson 20 22 Pitt NR
23 Florida State 9 23 Texas A&M NR
24 Nebraska NR 24 Ole Miss NR
25 Cincinatti NR 25 Pitt NR

Now lets examine this just a bit.  Nine of the top fifteen and 60% of the teams in the final 2011 poll were unranked in recruiting over the past five years.  Neither Wisconsin, Baylor, TCU, Houston, Kansas State, Southern Miss, or Cincinnati have had a single signing class ranked in the top 25 over the last five seasons.

Eight of the top fifteen recruiting classes and, again, 60% of the cumulative classes did not finish in the final AP poll in 2011.  Texas, Ohio State, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, and Tennessee all have some ‘splainin’ to do.

Those are just the team numbers.  I know what you are thinking.  What about individual recruits?  Looking at the incoming class of 2008, there seem to have been quite a few “misses”.

The top 25 overall players from the 2008 class includes the likes of Terrelle Pryor, DeQuan Bowers, Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson and AJ Green.   But who remembers Dayne Crist, Notre Dame QB recruit and the next in a long line of men who Beano Cook handed a Heisman Trophy to before he took his first snap (see Ron Powlus).  He was ranked ahead of Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, and Blaine Gabbert coming out of high school.

I also took a look at this years All-American Team, as well as their position rankings coming out of high school:  Wisconsin’s Monte Ball was the 47th ranked running back, South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram was the #20 defensive end, Morris Claibourne of LSU was the #90 wide reciever and Tyrann Mathieu (Honey Badger don’t care) was the #31 cornerback, LaMichael James of Oregon was the #40 running back, and Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State was the 58th ranked wide reciever.

So what does all of this really mean?  I have a few quick theories.

First of all, most of us who follow college recruiting have seen a three star player sign at a big time SEC school and wake up the next morning as a four star kid.  Once the recruiting services get word that a Nick Saban or an Urban Meyer are looking at a kid their stock often rises sharply.  Serriously, what is the difference between the #29 and #30 nose tackle?  Height?  Hooking your horns to a recruiting service to predict your programs future may not be the best game plan.  Just ask Mack Brown and his Texas Longhorns who used their #3 cumulative recruiting class to get them to an 8-5 record this season, their second disappointing campaing in a row.  At the end of the day, if the recruiting services knew everything about recruiting, I have to assume that they would be employed by a school rather than a website.

Secondly, the really successful coaches, the ones that have sustained success ofer a long period of time, recruit kids that match their style rather than a particularly impressive Youtube profile.  Nick Saban went all the way up to Flint, Michigan four years ago to get a little known three star kid, ranked as the 58th best running back.  You may know him as Heisman winner Mark Ingram.  Face it, if a player does not fit in with the personality of a team or the personality and coaching style of the coaching staff, it may not matter how talented he is.  Mark Richt and Isaiah Crowell may be able to attest to this theory.

Finally, as the saying goes, its not always what you have, but what you do with it.  Based on the charts above, one could argue that he’s a man, he’s 40, and Mike Gundy does a heck of a job coaching his Cowboys up in Stillwater.  The same could be said for Chris Peterson at Boise State, or even Bret Bielema at Wisconsin who has not had a top 25 recruiting class in any of the past five seasons.  And again, it might be time for Texas to raise an eyebrow at Mack Brown who seems to be failing to help his players reach their full potentials.

While injuries cannot be prevented and transfers are inevitable for all programs, I feel that the above information is pretty hard to argue with.  Still, as we go into signing day next week, diehards like myself will have our ears to the radio as we sit in our offices hitting the refresh button on our laptops and cruising the message boards for rumors of our schools next big score.  Why do we put ourselves through this?  Why do we ignore the cold hard facts that signing day does not promise our programs any success or lack there of?  Well, it’s simple.  We’re junkies.  And we love it.

I’ll see you folks next week when I review Alabama’s recruiting class (expected to be the best in the nation) and try to convince you that everything you just read is a bunch of bull.


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