What is WinDecision™

It is a tool that displays the options for a coach to make a decision. While most situations are straightforward, some are quite tricky. WinDecision™ allows the coach to make an informed decision using a combination of future win probability and probabilistic outcomes of future events. WinDecision™ also factors in similar situations from over 2 million plays run in college football since 2005. This can powerfully show a coach what is possible, what is probable, what will help win the game, and what has happened in the past.

What is "Win Probability?"

Well, it's pretty simple. Given a certain situation in a game, it is the chance that a team has of winning the game. A "change" in the win probability is what we call WinPact™, short for Win Probability Impact.

What are the main factors?

Keeping it simple, there are a few core factors in determining a team's chance of winning the game.

• Score - Basic intuition is correct in that a team with a lead has a greater chance of winning than a team without a lead.
• Time - How much time remains in the game ultimately determines how long a team has to change the outcome.
• Possession - The team that has the ball has at a given time in the game obviously has an advantage.
• Location - The home team typically has an advantage historically. There is a definitely a difference between being at home and on the road.
• Down & Distance - 1st Down is more optimistic than 4th Down. Shorter distances are easier to get first downs (and retain possession) than longer distances.
• Field Position - Getting across the opponent's 40 yard line is crritical. The closer to the goal line, the high number of points a team is expected to score.

How do I read the WinDecision™ chart?

Starting simple, the Outcome Probability % and the New Team Win Probability columns should be the initial focus. One represents the chance a certain outcome will happen and the other provides the win probability as a result of that outcome (the reward). Coaches should always want the highest win probability that comes with a high percentage outcome. Additionally, the consequences of other (potentially catastrophic) outcomes must be considered. Going down in win probability is not always a bad thing. Going from 50% to 40% on a highly probable outcome is acceptable and often the best decision. Alternatively, going from 50% to 10% hoping for an outcome that had a 15% chance of happening is considered 'high risk'.

Do you take into account a team's talent and tendencies?

The free version of WinDecision™ does not. Paid versions are customizable with individual team and talent adjustments to increase accuracy.

How does scoring ever lower a team's Win Probability?

As soon as a team scores, they have to kick the ball off to the other team. As soon as the other team gets the ball, they now have a chance to score and potentially take the lead. Possession of the ball is important to win probability, especially in late-game situations. That said, the later in the game you can score (and lead the game) the higher the Win Probability because there is less time for the opponent to score.

Why doesn't the WinDecision™ Tool just tell us what the best decision is?

The point of this tool is to make sure coaches know the potential risk in their decisions. If the coach feels that the kicker has a 90% chance of making the kick and the tool is saying 60%, then err on the side of the coach's knowledge of the player's capabilities. The same applies to running plays that the coach is confident they can execute and gain yards.

Other questions?

Not all of the outcomes and probabilities are intuitive. Feel free to email us at team@coachesbythenumbers.com with any questions, comments, or feedback you may have. We are always looking for ways to improve our tools and give coaches the best possible information.